Unemployment and Jobs in Australia - Very Moderate Rise in ABS Figures
What will the economists say now? Malcolm Maiden where are you? That great media tart Chris Richardson has now revised his previous doom and gloom forecast. Just weeks ago Richardson claimed that unemployment may hit as high as 10%. Now? At worst he thinks it will only rise as far as 7.5%.
You may remember that when the unemployment figure dropped in April to 5.4%, economists and commentators like Maiden and Richardson were out crying foul. The ABS must have got it wrong. That trusted agency who conduct detailed statistical analysis were flying in the face of all the "anecdotal" evidence commentators had heard.
The commentators then went on to predict a significant rise in the unemployment figure, likely up from the 5.7% experienced in March
So where did it go in May? Hmmm. Back to 5.7%. So we are at exactly the same level we were 2 months ago. But its not even as bad as that. The headline figure suggests a rise. Correct. And that is the one that the media and commentators will be running with. Unemployment rises!
However we need to look further at the detailed statistics. Full time jobs were shed by some 26,200. But part time jobs were created to the tune of 24,500. Thats a net job loss of only 1700 jobs.
What, for the entire month, net job losses were 1700 people out of a workforce of over 10 million? Damn, this global downturn is hitting Australia hard.
Now look at the employment rate over the last year. In May 2008, just over 10 million people were employed in Australia (10,057,200). In May 2009, that figure has jumped more than 700,000 to 10,793,100. Some recession, when 700,000 more people are in work.
Its all about what story you tell from the statistics. Yes there are more unemployed people than there were last year. But they are off such a low base. Any economy that has an unemployment rate below 6% in this global climate is doing incredibly well. The United States has an unemployment rate of 9.4%. And the UK well over 7%.
But don't worry, these economists will try to scare you yet. They will still predict a sharp rise in the unemployed. It may even reach 10%. Hmm. Well, if it does, I'm buying a one way ticket to fairyland. Maybe thats where Malcolm Maiden is.
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